Punters Show Golden Slipper Preview

As the build up to the Longines Golden Slipper intensifies, we've collated a guide to help you find a winner for Saturday's $3.5 million race.

Punters Show favourite Darren Potter has provided his assessed odds while Brent Zerafa and Aaron Macey have given comment on why each runner can or cannot win.

1. Extreme Choice

Mick Price - Craig Newitt

Market Price - $3 - Potts’ Price - $3.70

BZ - Hard to fault given he is unbeaten and was so brilliant winning the Blue Diamond last start. He has gate speed to put himself in a favourable position and then has the acceleration to scoot away at the finish. He has raced the Sydney way so that is no query. Only concern is the price, I think $3 is just a touch too short.

AM - Genuine jump and run 2YO that has taken all before him in his three runs to date. In saying that, I still have a big query on the quality of the horses he has beat and don’t feel he should be anywhere close to as short as his current quote. He is drawn to get a beautiful run from the gate but feel when the pressure goes on at the 200m, he will have to go to another level again.

2. Flying Artie

Mick Price - Damien Oliver

Market Price $5 - Potts’ Price $4

BZ - Finally draws a good barrier and one that is inside Extreme Choice. His effort in the Blue Diamond under the circumstances was huge and you know he will respond under pressure late. I think he can turn the tables on Extreme Choice and be very hard to beat.

AM - I felt his run in the Blue Diamond was close to equal that of the winner. He was forced to get too far out of the race from the wide gate and was speared off the track late. Drawing in barrier 5 will allow him to settle much closer and will have him within striking range at the point of the turn without doing too much work. I feel he is the better of the two Mick Price runners and has a better racing pattern to take out the Slipper.

3. Defcon

Team Snowden - Brett Prebble

Market Price $21 - Potts’ Price $18

BZ - I was questioning whether he could win prior to the barrier draw and now I’m confident he won’t from barrier 14. Not many Golden Slipper winners come from too far off the pace and I’m expecting him to settle either too wide or too far back to be a realistic winning chance.

AM - I feel he has become a little bit of a forgotten horse. His first two runs this prep were out standing when unsuited by the barrier and was by no means tuned up. His last start win was rather impressive, albeit over a mediocre field but he won with a touch of class. With any luck in running early and a strong tempo, I’d expect him to be one of the ones flying home.

4. Kiss And Make Up

Gai Waterhouse - Kerrin McEvoy

Market Price $10 - Potts’ Price $21

BZ - Honest horse who will race in typical Gai Waterhouse style up on the pace. Hard to gauge his true ability as he looks to still have upside but I’m not totally convinced he is up to winning a Golden Slipper. Not prepared to say he can’t win but I won’t be rushing to back him either.

AM- I’m not quite sure what to make of this bloke just yet. Did enough on debut and then surprised punters by beating Capitalist. I feel he is probably half of his true odds and I’m happy to go around him at his current price.

5. Astern

John O'Shea - James McDonald

Market Price $11 - Potts’ Price $18

BZ - He would have been my pick before the barrier draw but his task is made extremely difficult now. Loved his win in the Silver Slipper and he looks open to so much improvement. I think he would have won the Todman Stakes and been close to favourite but he will need a miracle from the gate.

AM - Highly talented colt that showed an impressive will to win in both career starts. Slight query with him missing a vital lead up run but his trial was good and as long as he parades well on the day I could expect him to become a great value bet with the market over analysing the wide barrier.

6. Star Turn

Team Hawkes -

Market Price $41 - Potts’ Price $51

BZ - His run to Flying Artie in the Blue Diamond Prelude was good enough to say he can be in the mix here at huge odds. Happy to forgive last start and trial on Monday suggests he has taken no harm from the run. The stable are confident the trip to Melbourne has helped him mature.

AM - Willing to forgive his run in the Blue Diamond as he had a torrid run in transit. His trial between runs was good but not sure he is at the same level as the top couple in this field. He seems to be around his right price at 40-1.

7. Capitalist

Team Snowden - Blake Shinn

Market Price $9 - Potts’ Price $21

BZ - I had my doubts about the Magic Millions form previous to his Todman Stakes run and his performance a fortnight ago was quite disappointing. There may have been some fitness queries with him but he still needed to do more there to suggest he could win a Golden Slipper.

AM - When watching the replay of his Todman Stakes run it appears he was an unhappy horse early in the race and wasn’t able to fully stretch out in the straight. I believe you should always forgive a good horse one run and I have confidence in Team Snowden that they wouldn’t have him there unless he is 100 per cent. Drawn beautifully in barrier two should see him get a soft run in transit and appears over the odds.

8. Good Standing

James Cummings - Hugh Bowman

Market Price $13 - Potts’ Price $10

BZ - I don’t see him as a winning chance, rather a horse that will be awfully hard to beat when he gets to the 1400m of the Sires Produce Stakes at Randwick. Had on pace favours on a leader bias track last start and while he did a good job winning the Skyline Stakes, I doubt whether he is sharp enough to get the cash here.

AM - I have very good opinion of this colt and would not be surprised to see him being the best horse in the race moving forward. He is still very raw and doesn’t appear to be as forward mentally as the majority of the field. From barrier 10 I can see him settling about midfield, three wide with cover getting possibly the run of the race. He could be the K.O horse at $15.

9. Telperion

John O'Shea - James Doyle

Market Price $26 - Potts Price $51

BZ - This could be the horse that surprises at big odds with the blinkers going on for the first time. Godolphin were keen to get him in the race at the expense of others already qualified and I think his last start was a complete forgive. He has lacked the ability to show initiative early in the race but the application of blinkers may counter that.

AM - Disappointed last start but has since trialled impressive in blinkers and could certainly be one for the multiples at a bit of a price. Expecting him to improve over further in time.

10. French Fern

David Payne - Opie Bosson

Market Price $151 - Potts’ Price $201

BZ - Good luck to connections but I can’t see her winning. The Reisling Stakes form just doesn’t look up to standard this year.

AM - Nice win last start against the fillies but couldn’t see her winning here.

11. Scarlet Rain

Gai Waterhouse - Tommy Berry

Market Price $26 - Potts’ Price $51

BZ - Hard to imagine her burning across from barrier 16 and still being in contention when the race gets serious. Connections have been on a great ride and they deserve a chance but I think she will get found out here.

AM - Unbeaten filly that has been gifted all three of her wins. Not saying that she doesn’t have the ability but has certainly got away with soft leads and is yet to be tested and feel she is way bellow her true odds.

 

 

12. Calliope

Market Price $16 - Potts’ Price $18

BZ - Looks the best of the fillies but not good enough to win, especially from the wide barrier. She got plenty of favours up the inside last week and only just managed to hold on to beat the fast-finishing Omei Sword.

AM - Nice style of filly that received a 10/10 ride to win on Saturday but feel she would have to improve a couple of lengths again to be winning here.

 

13. Yankee Rose

Market Price $34 - Potts’ Price $34

BZ - She has been set a huge task by being aimed at this race first-up. Two trials have been good but hard to think she would have enough grounding to win a race of this nature without a run since November. It would be one training performance if she can. Her form through Good Standing is quite strong and she should wind up at the finish.

AM - Very smart filly with plenty of ability but couldn’t possibly come into her first-up in a Golden Slipper.

14. Sweet Sherry

Market Price $126 - Potts’ Price $101

BZ - Not good enough from what I’ve seen thus far.

AM - Was smashed by the colts on the Blue Diamond and could not possibly make a case to see her winning here on exposed form.

15. Honesty Prevails

Rick Worthington - Jason Collett

Market Price $41 - Potts’ Price $51

BZ - Widden Stakes win was visually impressive but form since from that race has been average. In the worst part of the track last start but still not good enough to win here.

AM - Smart filly that was rather disappointing last start. Drawn to get a beautiful run and is likely around her right price.

16. Quick Feet

Team Snowden - Damian Lane

Market Price $201 - Potts’ Price $301

BZ - I’d highly doubt that the Reisling Stakes form is good enough to win a Golden Slipper. Should get a cosy run from the barrier but would need significant improvement from the blinkers if she is to even be a place chance.

AM - A filly that has good ability and will improve sharply with the blinkers on for the first time. Would be very surprised to see her win but from barrier one and at 200-1 could through her in for the first 4.

17. (E) Moqueen

Anthony Cummings -

Market Price $301 - Potts’ Price N/A

BZ - Still a maiden and would be better suited winning a race first before taking on the best two-year-olds in the country.

AM - Both runs have been very good but would have to go to another level to see her placing here if she was to get a run.